NY Open Reversal

Setup

Setup criteria:

1. London session produces a directional move (50+ pips in one direction) into an obvious resistance or support level by 8 AM ET.

2. NY data drop at 8:30 AM ET either confirms the move or extends it further into the level.

3. Rejection candle appears on the 15m or 1H around the level just before or at the US equity open (9:30 AM ET).

Entry rules

Entry rules:

Confirmation entry: Enter against the trend on the close of the rejection candle near the major level. Stop above (for shorts) or below (for longs) the extreme of the rejection candle.

Filter the noise: Only take the trade if the level being faded is a Daily or Weekly horizontal level — not a small intraday one. The level's importance determines the conviction.

Skip if: No clean rejection candle prints, or if the trend was driven by major news (FOMC, NFP) without obvious exhaustion. News-driven trends often continue well past initial "reversal" zones.

Trade management

Trade management:

Stop loss: Beyond the highest high / lowest low of the rejection candle, plus a 5-10 pip buffer.

First target: VWAP of the trading day, or the 50% retracement of the London move. Either typically produces a 1:1.5 or 1:2 R:R.

Time exit: If the trade hasn't moved meaningfully by 11 AM ET, close it. The NY morning window (9:30 to 11 AM) is the prime mean-reversion window; afternoons tend to chop or trend slowly.

Pros and cons

Pros: Targets a structurally-clean window (NY open) with predictable order flow. R:R is often favorable (1:2+). Works on multiple liquid majors.

Cons: Counter-trend trading is psychologically harder than trend-following. False reversals happen frequently when news is the driver. Requires presence at screen during a specific 90-minute window.

Best pairs: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · XAU/USD. More context in the forex glossary, or see strategies stacked on real charts in the trading blog.

NY Open Reversal FAQ